Just about anyone interested in mathematics has studied a little probability and probably done some easy analysis of basic card games and dice games. Completely off topic for a second, am I the only one who has noticed that basic probability homework exercises are the only situation, aside from funerals, that anyone will ever use the word “urn?” For whatever reason, probabilists love that word. Anyway, in any real card game, the computations tend to get complicated rather quickly, and most people get turned off from the discussion. With some ingenuity, however, one can answer some pretty cool (but initially difficult seeming) questions without having to go through a lot of tedious computations.

Take as an example card shuffling. In the face of expert card-counters, the natural question for the dealer is how many times he or she has to shuffle the deck before it’s well-mixed. In the case when the dealer is also playing the game — and is a card-counter at the level of a member of the MIT black jack team, say — he or she could drastically improve their odds by using a shuffling method which seems to shuffle the deck well, but actually is very poor at doing so. Anyway, at this point the question is slightly ill-posed, as we have no obvious way to interpret the word *mixed*, let alone *well*. In fact, coming up with a mathematical model of what shuffling means is already fairly difficult. What I’m hoping to do is give a framework which makes the problem more tractable.